University of Pennsylvania Weitzman School of Design
The District wants biking to be safe, accessible, and easy for everyone, but developing a clear picture of when and where people ride bikes is difficult. The Lab is combining multiple sources of data to estimate how people use the District’s bike lanes and bike trails. This project will help the District learn how bike ridership is changing over time and in response to interventions.
Why is this issue important in DC?
The District has a growing network of more than 100 miles of bike lanes and infrastructure. The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducts yearly in-person counts of bike lane users and has several automated counters on bike paths, but this data only offers a partial picture of bike ridership across the city.
People riding bicycles in the District. (Photo Credit: DDOT)
What are we doing?
In addition to in-person and automated counts, DDOT has data on how users travel on bikeshare and dockless scooters, as well as external datasets that model certain types of travel behavior. We are combining these separate datasets to build and test statistical models that estimate traffic on District bike lanes and trails. Through a partnership with the University of Pennsylvania, we worked with students on the first phase of the model development. We will build off of their model, look at how well different models work, and identify what matters most for accurate predictions.
Importantly, each data source gives us a partial look at ridership: A counter only looks at one segment of a path. Some datasets may include more commuters. Others include more leisure cyclists. And others leave out personal bikes in favor of shared bikes. Because some data sources may be more or less likely to include certain users and certain locations, we’ll also check how well the model performs for different areas of the District to better understand the gaps in the model and who we may be missing.
What have we learned?
We expect to share results in 2026.
What comes next?
This project is exploring what’s possible with the data DDOT has and where the limitations are. Depending on the model’s accuracy, DDOT may use the estimates to track bike ridership over time and to understand how bike infrastructure use changes in response to DDOT projects.